Bitcoin plunged below $77,000 on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump issued fresh threats directed at Iran, accelerating a sell-off that has pushed key profitability metrics into negative territory. Long-term holders who bought between six and twelve months ago are now sitting on deep unrealized losses — and they're moving coins to exchanges at a pace not seen in months.
Monday's Plunge
The drop came swiftly after Trump's latest remarks on Iran, which rattled markets already on edge. Panic selling is spreading across the board, and major profitability indicators have fallen below critical levels. A rapid V-shaped recovery remains unlikely until the market clears what analysts call 'toxic' supply and sentiment stabilizes.
Long-Term Holders in the Red
On-chain data shows that investors who accumulated Bitcoin between six and twelve months ago have an average realized entry price near $110,851. That cohort is now deeply underwater, and exchange inflows from these wallets have been rising since May 14. The Spent Output Age Bands ratio for 6-12 month coins surged to 10.54% — far above its normal level below 1%. That signals large-scale capitulation from long-term holders, a rare and worrying sign.
Short-Term Traders Joining the Sell-Off
Short-term holders aren't faring any better. On May 16, the Short-Term Holder SOPR fell to 0.994 and the adjusted SOPR dropped to 0.996, both below the 1.0 threshold that separates profit-taking from loss realization. The next day, STH-SOPR remained weak at 0.999, confirming that many short-term investors are now selling at a loss.
What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst Doctor Profit warned that a major correction may be approaching. Another analyst, Mr. Wall Street, said Bitcoin could see a much deeper decline after its recent 10% pullback and may eventually drop to the $45,000 level. Neither prediction is certain, but the data suggests sellers are in control.
For now, the market waits for the wave of distressed supply to be absorbed. Until that happens, a meaningful bounce looks like a long shot.
