Bitcoin is stuck near $64,000 after two failed attempts to break the same resistance level. Long-term holders flipped from net buyers to net sellers in early August, and a double top pattern has formed — a classic bearish reversal signal. With the US jobs report due Friday and the Jackson Hole symposium later this month, the next few weeks could determine whether Bitcoin holds support or slides toward $50,000.
Long-Term Holders Turn Net Sellers
Data from on-chain metrics shows a clear shift. Large wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC peaked at 2.26 million BTC on August 3, then eased to 2.25 million — trimming, not adding. More telling: long-term holders went from net buyers to net sellers in the first days of August. Net selling jumped from 1,802 BTC on August 2 to 11,472 BTC on August 4. That's a sixfold increase in two days. The timing isn't great for bulls.
Double Top Takes Shape
Bitcoin has printed a double top pattern with two peaks on comparable volume. Sell-side volume has been rising since August 1, pushing price toward the lower edge of the range. Key support levels sit at $61,080, then $59,500, and the neckline zone between $57,750 and $57,470. A daily close below that neckline would confirm the pattern and target a 14% drop to roughly $49,700 — a move similar in size to the August 2022 decline. August has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, closing lower in six of the last eight years.
Two Events That Could Move the Market
Two US events with a history of moving Bitcoin are coming up. First, the US jobs report on Friday. Economists expect a soft reading of about 80,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment. Since 2023, Bitcoin has tended to fall on weak labor data. The August 2024 jobs report triggered a sharp drop. Second, the Jackson Hole symposium in late August. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, known for a hawkish stance, will give his first speech at the symposium. In 2022, a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole sent Bitcoin below $20,000.
What Would Invalidate the Bearish View
It's not all doom. A reclaim of the $66,930–$67,230 resistance zone would invalidate the double top and the bearish outlook. But for now, the weight of the data — selling by long-term holders, a bearish pattern, and historically weak seasonality — leans toward caution. The next concrete test comes Friday with the jobs report. If the numbers miss expectations, Bitcoin could test the first support levels. If they surprise to the upside, the double top might get a second look.
