Bitcoin slid to around $61,200 Thursday, down more than 3% over the past 24 hours, as two crypto analysts published bearish forecasts that see the price falling much further before a eventual recovery. The day's move puts the largest cryptocurrency back below a key technical level and sets up what could be a volatile summer.
The $48,000 target — and beyond
Analyst Crypto Lens predicts Bitcoin could drop to $48,000 within a few days, then to $43,000 in July, and finally to $32,000 by September. That would be a decline of nearly 50% from current levels. Even with that grim near-term view, Lens isn't all doom: they claim the bear market is 53% complete and the cycle bottom likely occurs between August and September. After that, a rally to $150,000 is expected by February next year.
A different timeline for the bottom
Another analyst, Colin, offers a different schedule. Drawing on work from Benjamin Cowen, Colin says a Q4 bottom is more likely than a summer one. The reasoning: Bitcoin didn't have a strong dip immediately after sweeping the February low of $60,000, and it closed above the 200-week simple moving average on that move. Colin predicts Bitcoin may bounce for one to three months, then drop to a new low in Q4, forming the cycle bottom then.
The 200-week SMA as a dividing line
Both views hinge on the 200-week moving average, a historically important support level. Colin notes that if Bitcoin breaks below that line within one to two weeks, the bottom may form on that move down — a faster, more violent resolution rather than a drawn-out slide. Right now, price sits within a few percentage points of the 200-week SMA, so the next few trading days could set the tone for months.
