Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since February on Friday, trading at $79,083 after failing to hold above $82,000. The 3% drop came as the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.5% for the first time since June 2025, and the 30-year yield climbed toward 5.1% — just 8 basis points shy of a 19-year high, according to macro analyst Jim Bianco. Rising yields compress the risk premium for assets like Bitcoin, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets, said Nicolai Sondergaard of Nansen. The timing isn't great: US spot Bitcoin ETFs were on pace for more than $700 million in weekly outflows, the largest since late January.
ETF outflows kill momentum
Those ETF outflows remove a key source of spot demand just as Bitcoin tries to reclaim its 200-day moving average and the $82,000 level. Cumulative Volume Delta on Binance and Coinbase has deteriorated sharply — monthly averages fell from $50 million and $30 million to $6.5 million and $5.7 million, respectively. On May 8, CVD briefly turned negative, signaling a weaker buyer-seller balance. Without fresh ETF buying, the market is struggling to absorb selling pressure.
CLARITY Act clears Senate committee
On the policy side, the Senate Banking Committee approved the CLARITY Act this week — a milestone for US crypto regulation. The bill aims to clarify which digital assets are securities and which are commodities, a question that has dogged the industry for years. While the vote is a positive signal, the market's attention remains fixed on macro headwinds. The unresolved Iran-US conflict adds uncertainty around growth and inflation, keeping risk assets under pressure.
What’s next for Bitcoin
Bitunix said the long-term investment case for Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset remains intact, but short-term price action depends on either a retreat in yields or a recovery in ETF inflows. Neither seems imminent. The 10-year yield at 4.5% and climbing gives traders little reason to rotate back into crypto right now. The CLARITY Act still needs full Senate and House approval — a process that will take months. For now, Bitcoin is stuck in a macro-driven downtrend, and no policy vote is going to change that overnight.
