Bitcoin's market cap tumbled to roughly $1.46 trillion this week, pushing the cryptocurrency below a dozen major companies and commodities in global asset rankings. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, now predicts the bear market could stretch into early 2027 — based on an on-chain profitability model that tracks when investors start taking profits.
Where Bitcoin ranks now
Gold still sits atop the world's most valuable assets at nearly $31 trillion. Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Broadcom, Saudi Aramco, Tesla, and Meta Platforms all rank above Bitcoin. The drop below $1.5 trillion in market cap is a stark reminder of how far crypto has fallen from its highs.
The on-chain signal that matters
The decline in investor profits started back in October 2025, according to CryptoQuant. Once profit-taking cascades, bear markets typically last about 18 months. That would put a potential recovery sometime in early 2027. The CryptoQuant PnL Index Signal indicator rolled over after peaking in 2025, and the firm says a real recovery will only be confirmed when unrealized profits rise while realized profits fall.
Derivatives data tells a mixed story
Total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives fell to around $55 billion, with liquidations hitting close to $224 million. Over $30 million in long positions were wiped out in 24 hours, compared to about $17 million in shorts. Yet the long-short ratio on Binance and OKX still leans bullish — a fragile sign given the macro headwinds.
Macro pressures pile on
US PCE inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year in April, and odds of a Fed rate hike have risen sharply. On top of that, reports of tensions between the US and Iran have rattled global markets, weakening risk sentiment across crypto. Bitcoin was trading near $73,289 at the time of this report, down slightly over 24 hours.
The next big test: whether the Fed signals another hike at the upcoming meeting — and whether long holders can stomach more pain until early 2027.
