Bitcoin dropped more than $1,000 on Wednesday after benign US CPI data, pushing the price back to the bear market trendline. The pullback from the $64,450 horizontal resistance didn't take out the last lower low, and the trendline held as support. The move leaves the market at a crossroads, with the next trendline in sight.
Back to the trendline
The sell-off started right after the CPI print, with bears shoving price down from that $64,450 level. It wasn't a clean break. The recent dump stopped short of the previous lower low, and the bear market trendline caught the fall. That's the same line that's been guiding price lower since it broke through on the daily chart.
Now price is approaching the next trendline. A break above it could lead to a return to key overhead resistance. But that's a big if, given how the daily time frame still shows price sliding down the bear market trendline.
Chart signals
On the daily chart, the picture is mixed. The bear market trendline has been the dominant feature since the break, but there's also a bull market trendline that goes back to late 2022. That older line may act as a brake on the downside. RSI has dropped below its own trendline, confirming a breakdown, but it's made a higher low. That's not the kind of momentum you'd expect if a fresh leg down was starting.
Bull vs. bear
Here's the thing about the two trendlines. The bull market one is nearly four years old. The bear market, if the bottom was under $58K, is less than nine months old. That's a big difference in weight. The article suggests it looks more likely that the bear market has finished than that it has further to go.
There's still a chance of one more big dip that takes out the previous low. But as things stand, the bull market trendline is holding. The bottom looks to be in, though that doesn't mean a straight shot up.
The next test is the trendline ahead. A break above it could open the door back to key overhead resistance. Until then, expect chop. The market has a habit of grinding sideways after a move like this, and with the bull trendline still intact, the path of least resistance might be up — but it won't be smooth.
