Bitcoin took a sharp leg lower on Friday, falling to around $59,000 before recovering above $63,000. The intraday swing pushed more than 10.46 million BTC into loss territory — roughly half the circulating supply — and triggered a wave of long-term holder selling that totaled $3.25 billion in spot Bitcoin. Over the past two weeks, more than 54,000 BTC have moved onto trading platforms, reflecting heightened exchange inflows.
Historic supply-in-loss signal flashes
Market analyst Ali Martinez flagged that the supply-in-loss metric, which tracks Bitcoin held at a loss, has climbed above 10 million coins. According to Martinez, when that threshold has been breached in the past, it has reliably marked macro bottoms. “Bitcoin appears poised to reach a market bottom and a major macro accumulation cycle is forming,” he argued. The data suggests that while prices have bounced, the conditions for a lasting bottom may still be setting up.
MVRV bands and the next accumulation zones
Martinez also pointed to the MVRV Pricing Bands, specifically the range between 1.0 and 0.8, as a traditional accumulation zone. Those bands correspond to price levels around $53,900 and $43,150 — both well below the current spot price. The implication is that despite Friday’s snapback, the metric leaves room for further downside before buyers step in aggressively. The 1.0 band often acts as a fair-value floor, with deeper discounts at 0.8.
Long-term distribution and exchange inflows
The $3.25 billion in spot Bitcoin distributed by long-term holders during the downswing is one of the larger single-week figures this year. Combined with the 54,000 BTC deposited on exchanges over two weeks, the pattern mirrors previous distribution events that preceded price stabilization. Whether this time is different depends on whether the selling exhausts itself at current levels or accelerates if prices break lower.
For now, the market watches whether the supply-in-loss metric holds its historical accuracy. Martinez’s accumulation zones offer a roadmap, but the actual bottom will only be confirmed if buying volume picks up near those targets. The next few days will show whether the rebound above $63,000 has staying power or is just a pause before the next leg down.
