Bitcoin slid to around $66,300 Thursday, shedding more than 6% in 24 hours, as analysts warned the current bear cycle still has room to run. Two prominent voices — analysts Tony and Colin — both say the February low of $60,000 is unlikely to hold, with Tony calling for a drop to $50,000 by July and possibly below $40,000 before the cycle bottoms out.
Bear signals on the charts
Tony pointed out that Bitcoin broke its ascending channel and is now trading below the Ichimoku Cloud — a textbook bearish setup. The cryptocurrency has already fallen about 47% from its October high near $126,000. Colin noted that historical bear cycles have seen declines of over 70%, meaning the worst may not be over yet. 'Retesting $60,000 is highly likely, and the February low of $60,000 is unlikely to be the bottom in this bear cycle,' Colin said in a note.
A bounce first, then more pain
Neither analyst expects the drop to be a straight line. Tony sees a short-term bounce from the current $67,000 area up into the $74,000 range before a move to new lows below $60,000. Colin pegs the $65,000 to $66,000 zone as a reasonable support level for a bounce that could last weeks or even months. But both agree the relief rally would be temporary — a pause before the next leg down.
The trap rally risk
Tony described a scenario he calls the 'trap': Bitcoin could fake a breakout above $85,000, luring retail traders back in, only to reverse sharply and dump to new lows. The warning echoes past bear-market patterns where sharp rallies suck in late buyers before the floor falls out. At current levels, the risk of such a trap is real, Tony said, especially if sentiment shifts briefly on a piece of positive news.
The next concrete test will be whether Bitcoin can hold the $65,000–$66,000 zone in the coming days. If that support breaks, the path to $60,000 opens quickly. If it holds, the stage is set for that bounce to $74,000 — and then, perhaps, the real test below $60,000.
