Bitcoin is closing out July in the green for the third consecutive year — a streak no other month can match. But with August historically the worst month for the asset, traders are watching whether the momentum can hold. BTC traded near $65,300 this week after a quiet, range-bound stretch.
ETF inflows cool after July peak
Weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows hit a high of $197.40 million in the week to July 10. By July 24, that number had fallen to $33.84 million — an 83% drop. The decline suggests institutional demand may be fading as the month ends. August has the worst seasonal record for Bitcoin, with a median return of -7.87% and an average of -0.64%. It's closed red every year since 2022.
Whales add positions while retail stays neutral
Between July 23 and July 26, the number of Bitcoin whales — entities holding at least 1,000 BTC — ticked up from 1,263 to about 1,267. That's a small move, but it mirrors a similar accumulation on June 23, after which Bitcoin gained nearly 4%. Meanwhile, the whale-retail divergence score sits at 4.4 on the daily timeframe, meaning small and large traders are moving in the same direction — no clear split.
Long-term holders pare back
Long-term holders' net position change has been declining. It peaked at 42,251 BTC on May 24 when Bitcoin was near $77,039, then dropped 52% to about 20,500 BTC by July 2 as price slid to $61,486. More recently, from July 11 to July 26, the net change fell another 47% to 15,766 BTC — even though price held near $65,000. That suggests some long-term holders are taking profits or reducing exposure despite the stable price.
Head and shoulders pattern keeps bears alert
Bitcoin has been trading inside a head and shoulders pattern on the three-day timeframe since early March. Buying volume has been falling since June 30. The pattern implies a 25% breakdown risk, with a measured move target near $41,266 if the neckline near $54,000 is broken. But head and shoulders patterns often fail, and a slide to $41,000 would need a catalyst not currently present. Key levels: a three-day close above $66,885 would open a path to $76,118; losing $60,965 exposes the neckline near $54,000. A reclaim of $82,931 would cancel the bearish structure outright.
For now, the market is waiting to see if August lives up to its reputation. The next few weeks will test whether the July streak can survive the month that has closed red every year since 2022.
