Bitcoin kept sliding this week, briefly touching $78K before pulling back again. Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their seventh straight day of outflows, with more than 24,000 BTC leaving US funds in the last seven trading days. That's the longest consecutive withdrawal run in months, and it's adding to the pressure on an already shaky market.
Seven days of ETF outflows
The selloff in ETF shares hasn't let up. Daily net outflows have been consistent, though the pace varied. Some days saw heavier redemptions than others, but the streak itself is what's catching attention. Over 24,000 BTC in total — that's roughly $1.6 billion at current prices — has flowed out the door. No single event triggered the exodus; it looks more like a broad de-risking by institutional holders.
Bear flag and a flicker of hope
On the daily chart, a bear flag pattern is visible, and Bitcoin is trading below the midpoint of that flag. That's typically a continuation setup, pointing to more downside. But there's also an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. If it completes — and that's a big if — it could fuel a rally toward $81K. Right now the two patterns are pulling in opposite directions, and the market hasn't picked a lane.
Fibonacci floors at $60K and $40K
Fibonacci retracement levels from the last major upswing suggest two potential bear-market bottoms: $60K at the 0.618 level, and $40K at the 0.786 level. Those aren't predictions — just levels traders are watching closely. A break below $60K would open the door to $40K, a drop that would cut Bitcoin's value roughly in half from today's levels.
Monthly RSI holds the key
The daily Stochastic RSI is showing a potential rollover, meaning the recent bounce lacked momentum. The monthly Stochastic RSI, though, is the real timer. How long those lines stay below 20.00 will decide whether Bitcoin dips to $60K or slides all the way to $40K. If the monthly oscillator turns up soon, the shallower bottom wins. If it languishes, prepare for a deeper trough. That's the next concrete thing to watch.
