Bitcoin ETF outflows have run for six straight weeks through June 18, the longest losing streak since the products launched. But the pace is slowing fast—weekly redemptions fell from $1.72 billion on June 5 to about $227 million by the 18th. The question now is whether the bleeding stops or a broader market shock reopens the wound.
Why the crash bet is a long shot
Analyst Jesse Olson predicts Bitcoin could drop to $23,979—but only if the stock market crashes more than 50%. That's a big if. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees the S&P 500 at 8,000 by year-end, implying over 8% upside from here. Wilson's call suggests a 50% crash is unlikely. Bitcoin's six-month correlation with the S&P 500 sits at 0.468, so a major equity selloff would drag crypto down. But few analysts expect one.
Long-term holders aren't waiting for the bottom
While short-term money flees ETFs, long-term holders are buying. Their net position change rose from 30,885 BTC on June 11 to 79,298 BTC by June 21. That's a 157% jump in ten days. Analyst Benjamin Cowen sees the cycle bottom most likely around October 2026—not an imminent crash. If he's right, the current accumulation phase makes sense.
Binance shows the short side is stacked
On Binance, short liquidation leverage stands near $3.01 billion, compared to $2.41 billion for longs. That heavier short exposure means a squeeze could happen if prices turn. But with ETF outflows still in the red, the pressure hasn't shifted yet.
The next real test: whether weekly outflows turn positive in July. If they don't, the streak will hit two months. Long-term holders are betting the other way.
