Bitcoin is struggling to hold its June range floor after roughly $390 million left US spot Bitcoin ETFs between August 10 and 14, the largest weekly redemption since early July. The outflows come as July CPI came in at 0.1% month-on-month, cutting September rate-hike odds from roughly even to about one-in-three, and as retail sales posted their steepest decline since May 2025. Bitcoin is currently around $64,000, up 1.2% over 24 hours, down nearly 1% over 30 days, and 49% below its October 2025 all-time high.
ETF bleed
Bitcoin ETFs recorded only one positive session last week: Monday saw $145 million leave, Wednesday $61 million, Thursday $131 million, Friday $58 million, while Tuesday brought just under $5 million of net inflows. Wintermute wrote in a note that an asset that cannot rally on good news while its dedicated vehicles bleed is telling us the marginal seller is back, which weakens the depletion argument we have been carrying since W31.
Oil's shadow
Brent crude jumped 7.91% as Hormuz ship transits collapsed from 31 the prior weekend to five Saturday and zero Sunday, with the 60-day ceasefire expiring and talks stalled. A re-escalation that holds Brent near $89 puts the August CPI print at risk. Wintermute said the market was moving toward a situation where 'the inflation problem seems to be moving from the Fed's hands to oil's.'
Riot's sell-off
Riot Platforms sold 4,300 BTC during Q2 after selling 3,778 BTC in Q1; its treasury fell to 11,380 BTC as mining costs approached $91,000 per unit. Bitcoin was trading below $64,000, contributing to Riot's $237 million quarterly loss. Riot is shifting part of its business toward AI data centers, reportedly agreeing to supply 191 megawatts of capacity to Anthropic under a 20-year contract worth $9.1 billion.
Jane Street's stake
Jane Street disclosed more than $1 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings as of Q2, including about $828 million in IBIT. The filing only shows quarter-end holdings and does not capture the firm's full derivatives exposure.
The next test for Bitcoin is whether it can hold the June range floor as oil prices threaten to push August CPI higher. If Brent stays near $89, the Fed's path gets murkier, and the marginal seller Wintermute flagged may not be done.
