Bitcoin is grinding higher around $81,500, but the setup looks increasingly fragile. Data shows an estimated $15 billion in leveraged long positions stacked below the current price, versus only about $3 billion in shorts above — a 5:1 long-to-short liquidation imbalance. While the squeeze has pushed prices up, the momentum is fading, and traders are bracing for a possible reversal.
Liquidation imbalance hits 5:1
That $15 billion in long positions means a relatively small drop could trigger a cascade of forced selling. In contrast, short liquidations are sparse — just $3 billion above market. The imbalance is stark: longs are sitting ducks if buying pressure stalls. The market has been sustained by periodic short squeezes, but each squeeze is getting smaller.
The squeeze is losing steam
Analyst Kaz noted that Bitcoin's trading volume is fading, Open Interest is flat, and perpetual futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) is still climbing but slowing. Spot CVD is trending higher, which suggests genuine demand, but recent candles show weakening strength. "The move is weakening and due for a pullback," Kaz said, adding that making a decision based on this move is "not optimal." The upward grind is happening on thinner and thinner ice.
What to watch Wednesday
Midweek volatility is in play. If Bitcoin pushes higher before the New York Open without support from rising OI and spot demand, Kaz expects a dump during the NYO. The combination of a top-heavy liquidation ladder and fading buying pressure sets up a risky afternoon. Traders will be watching whether the $81,500 level holds or gives way to a retracement.
