Bitcoin is hanging around $78,000 this week after getting rejected at the $82,000 ceiling — and a pair of analysts are now warning that the next leg could be a steep one. Crypto Chan points to the MVRV ratio as a worrying echo of the 2018 bear market, while Kabuki sees a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern targeting a drop to $41,000 by June. With a market cap of $1.56 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest crypto asset, but the technical picture is getting harder to ignore.
Why the MVRV ratio is flashing red
Crypto Chan notes that Bitcoin's MVRV ratio currently sits at 1.51, a level that in the 2018 cycle preceded a final capitulation phase. Back then, the ratio first dropped to 1.15, rebounded to 1.63, and then fell again before the market bottomed. In this cycle, the ratio hit 1.14 when Bitcoin touched $60,000, then bounced to 1.51 at the recent $82,000 high. The pattern looks eerily similar — and that's not a good thing for bulls.
What the weekly chart shows
Kabuki's bearish call is based on a head-and-shoulders formation on the weekly chart. His projected path: Bitcoin drops to $70,000 in the coming days, then finds support at $61,000 and $47,000 along the way. A relief bounce to $55,000 is possible, but the final target is $41,000 by June. That would represent a roughly 47% decline from current levels — a move that would test the resolve of even the most seasoned hodlers.
What comes next
The timeline is tight. If Kabuki's read is right, the next few days could see Bitcoin test $70,000. The $61,000 level becomes critical after that. Crypto Chan's MVRV analysis doesn't give a specific price target, but it suggests the market hasn't yet reached the full-blown panic stage. For now, the charts are doing the talking — and they're not saying anything reassuring.
