Bitcoin's short-term price action is turning increasingly bearish. The asset has been making consecutive lower highs and lower lows for about 10 days, after nearly touching $67,000. Multiple rejections at the neckline of a bearish head and shoulders pattern and the top of a descending channel have kept buyers on the sidelines.
What the charts are showing
The head and shoulders pattern is a classic reversal signal. Bitcoin got rejected at its neckline, then again at the upper boundary of a descending channel. That's two technical failures in quick succession. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is currently below the price, which sounds bullish — but history says otherwise. Previous instances where price fell below the 50-day SMA led to sharp drops: from $77,000 to $60,000, and from $90,000 to $60,000. Those are big moves.
The RSI is also flashing a warning. It formed a rising wedge pattern that now looks to be breaking down, with the indicator line slipping below the bottom trendline. That suggests momentum is fading.
Key levels to watch
On the downside, two horizontal support levels stand out: $63,250 and $62,250. If Bitcoin breaks below those, the next stop could be the bull market trendline and the 200-week SMA — both of which have held so far. The current weekly candle is on track to close below the $66,000 resistance level, which would confirm the short-term weakness.
On the flip side, a bounce from the bull market trendline has kept the longer-term structure intact. But the near-term picture is fragile.
Oil's shadow
There's a macro factor that could add to the pressure. Oil prices are expected to start climbing again, according to the analysis behind this piece. Higher oil tends to hit U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin has been trading like a risk asset. If equities sell off, crypto could follow. The timing isn't great for a market already struggling with technical resistance.
For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold above $63,250. If it doesn't, the next test will be the bull market trendline — and that's a line that's held through several corrections. The weekly close this weekend will set the tone for the week ahead.
