Bitcoin tried to push above $65,000 on August 5 but couldn't hold it. The move fizzled fast, leaving the largest cryptocurrency stuck inside the $62,000 to $68,000 range it has occupied for weeks. The failed breakout came as traders digested a sharp drop in rate-hike expectations and a sudden slide in oil prices tied to Hormuz de-escalation hopes.
Rate hike odds tumble
Fed funds futures now put the probability of a September rate hike at 57.4%, down from 80.5% just a week earlier. The shift follows the FOMC's August 5 decision to hold the target rate at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9-3 vote — three officials pushed for an immediate quarter-point hike. The split vote and the drop in implied odds suggest the committee is losing conviction as inflation data softens.
June headline PCE fell 0.1% month-over-month, and core PCE rose just 0.1%. But annual rates remain above target at 3.7% and 3.3% respectively. That's still too high for the hawks, but the trend is moving in the right direction.
Oil and geopolitics
Brent crude fell more than 5% on August 4, settling near $79, on reports that a Hormuz de-escalation deal might be close. Only eight vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on August 4, compared with roughly 130-140 daily transits before the war began. Iran has denied that direct US talks are underway, but traders are pricing in progress anyway. By August 5, Brent had recovered to near $83 as the market weighed the odds of a real deal.
For Bitcoin, lower oil prices are generally a positive — they ease inflation pressure and give the Fed more room to pause. But the correlation is loose, and BTC didn't get much of a boost from the oil move.
Bitcoin's rangebound reality
Glassnode noted this week that Bitcoin 'sat out' the broader rally, with stocks and gold hitting record highs while BTC remained flat. The S&P 500 has outpaced the largest cryptocurrency over the past month. That's a stark shift from earlier in the year when Bitcoin was leading risk assets higher.
The range is tight. Bitcoin has held inside $62,000 to $68,000 for weeks, with no clear catalyst to break either side. The failed $65K push on August 5 shows resistance is real. Support has held, but buying pressure isn't strong enough to drive a breakout.
Jobs report next
The July jobs report is due this week. Economists expect roughly 80,000 new jobs and unemployment near 4.2%. The labor market has been cooling — JOLTS data showed job openings near 7.4 million, hires near 5.3 million, and layoffs holding steady. The employment component of the services PMI fell into contraction at 47.4 in July, a warning sign.
A weak jobs number could push rate hike odds even lower and give Bitcoin a reason to test the top of its range. A strong number would do the opposite. Either way, the range won't last forever.
