Bitcoin's monthly chart is flashing three rare technical signals that have only appeared together at major market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022. The current setup — with RSI around 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator near -71, and price testing the 50-month moving average — has preceded rallies of 675% to 8,300% in the past. Analysts are now watching whether history repeats.
The triple signal
The three indicators rarely align. Bitcoin's relative strength index sits at 43.65, well below the neutral 50 level. The Chande Momentum Oscillator, a lesser-used measure of trend strength, is at -71 — deep in oversold territory. And the price is testing the 50-month moving average, a level that has historically acted as a floor during bear markets. Together, these signals have marked the end of major downturns.
Historical precedent
In March 2015, Bitcoin traded at $235 with the same signal combination. It later dipped to $162 before rallying 8,300%. In January 2019, the setup appeared near $3,333; the cycle low hit $3,124, then came a 1,911% surge. Most recently, in December 2022, Bitcoin was at $16,270, bottomed at $15,473, and rallied 675%. Each time, the triple signal preceded a multi-year bull run.
Analyst outlook
Analyst Ali Martinez notes that on-chain indicators like MVRV and CVDD still suggest a potential cycle bottom in the $40,000 to $50,000 range. He recommends shifting from short positions to spot BTC accumulation, citing a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Analyst Doctor Profit also sees a buying opportunity and suggests gradual accumulation rather than lump-sum investing. Doctor Profit points to a large liquidity zone around $54,000 and doesn't expect Bitcoin to fall below $50,000.
Doctor Profit highlights two upcoming events that could strengthen market sentiment: a tokenized stocks rollout involving BlackRock, NYSE, S&P, Nasdaq, and DTCC, and the possible passage of the CLARITY Act in August. If those catalysts materialize, the current signal cluster could mark another historic entry point. For now, the charts are saying what they said before — and that's enough to get traders' attention.
