Executive Summary
Bitcoin’s 7‑day average funding rate slipped to roughly –1.8% this week, the lowest level recorded since 2023 and firmly in the bottom decile of readings since late 2020. At the same time, the network’s hash‑rate fell to the 16th percentile on a 30‑day moving average and the 9th percentile on a 90‑day window, marking the third sustained decline since December 2025. VanEck interpreted the convergence of negative funding and hash‑rate stress as a reinforced bullish backdrop for Bitcoin.
What Happened
The funding rate, a metric that reflects the cost of holding perpetual futures, turned sharply negative, landing around –1.8%. This drop places the figure in the 10th percentile of all readings collected since late 2020 and represents the deepest negative level seen since 2023.
Concurrently, Bitcoin’s hash‑rate—a proxy for network security and miner participation—continued its descent. The 30‑day moving average settled at the 16th percentile, while the 90‑day average slipped to the 9th percentile. Difficulty, which adjusts to maintain a steady block time, also fell into the 5th–6th percentile range.
The most recent hash‑rate contraction, a roughly 6.7% drawdown, concluded on April 15 2026. It is the third such sustained episode recorded after December 2025, adding to a pattern of short‑term stress that has historically preceded price appreciation.
Background / Context
Negative funding rates have long been associated with upside potential. Since 2020, periods of negative funding have delivered an average 30‑day return of 11.5%, compared with 4.5% across all periods, and a 77% hit‑rate for positive performance. When annualized funding fell below –5%, the subsequent 30‑day return averaged 19.4% and the 180‑day return surged to 70%.
Hash‑rate drawdowns, while often viewed as a sign of miner capitulation, have historically been followed by price gains. Across seven recorded drawdowns, Bitcoin closed 90 days later higher in six cases, with a median gain of 37.7% over 90 days and 63.1% over 180 days.
Other on‑chain signals reinforce the bullish narrative. Put premiums relative to spot volume are now more than six times their April 2024 level, indicating heightened options‑related hedging. Active supply over the past 180 days slipped to 28.4%, suggesting that a larger share of Bitcoin remains dormant. Long‑tenured holders (7‑10‑year and 10+‑year cohorts) have pushed spent volume into the 85th and 90th percentiles of the past four years, a sign of increased activity among the most patient investors.
Reactions
VanEck, a major crypto asset manager, highlighted the synergy between the funding and hash‑rate data. The firm concluded that the combination of a deep negative funding rate and a stressed hash‑rate environment “creates a reinforced bullish backdrop for Bitcoin.” VanEck’s analysis leans on the historical record that negative funding and hash‑rate pressure have often preceded outsized returns.
What It Means
The current data points to a market environment where short‑term pressure may translate into medium‑term upside. Investors who track funding rates could view the –1.8% level as a signal that futures markets are heavily short‑biased, a condition that historically aligns with price rallying.
Similarly, the hash‑rate decline, while a temporary stressor for miners, has historically been a precursor to price appreciation. The pattern suggests that miners may be willing to endure short‑term profitability squeezes if they anticipate higher prices later, a dynamic that can reinforce buying pressure.
On‑chain metrics add nuance. Elevated put premiums reflect growing hedging activity, which can provide downside protection for long‑term holders while keeping speculative interest alive. The dip in active supply indicates that a larger portion of Bitcoin is being held out of circulation, potentially limiting sell‑side liquidity when demand spikes.
Overall, the convergence of negative funding, hash‑rate stress, and supportive on‑chain signals builds a case for a bullish outlook, at least in the 30‑ to 180‑day horizon. Market participants should monitor whether funding rates remain in negative territory and whether the hash‑rate stabilizes, as both will be key gauges of the underlying momentum.