Bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average — roughly $62,000 — for the first time in the current cycle on Friday, a level that has historically acted as a bear-market floor. The move pushed the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart into its fire-sale band, a signal so rare it previously only appeared during the FTX collapse in November 2022. At writing, Bitcoin traded at $62,227, down about 0.3% on the day but off roughly 15% for the week and roughly 50% below the October 2025 record of $126,080.
What the 200-Week Line Means
Since early 2015, the 200-week moving average has served as a support line during crypto bear markets. It was tagged in December 2018 and March 2020, each time preceding a major recovery. But this time, the context is different. The current drawdown — roughly 29% to 30% from the yearly open — matches the typical midterm election year decline of about 32% by this point in the calendar, making an October low the base case.
Rainbow Chart Enters Rare Territory
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart's fire-sale band is not a metric that flashes often. Before this week, the last time it lit up was during the FTX meltdown. The indicator colors price ranges from “maximum bubble” to “fire sale,” and its current reading signals deep undervaluation by that model. That doesn't mean it's a guaranteed bottom. In the last cycle, Bitcoin slipped below the 200-week moving average in June 2022 and August 2023, and spent roughly seven months below it between August 2022 and March 2023.
“No Certainty” on the Floor
Analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed to that very history. “During the last cycle, Bitcoin did go below the 200-week moving average,” he said, “and I cannot say with certainty it won't happen again.” If the 200-week line doesn't hold through the rest of June, the next major support sits near $54,000 — the 300-week moving average, which closely tracks Bitcoin's realized price. That region would be a more definitive test of bear-market resolve.
Macro Catalysts Loom
Two events later this month could determine which path Bitcoin takes. The Federal Reserve meets on June 17, and any hawkish surprise could pressure risk assets further. Meanwhile, a Bank of Japan decision looms that may unwind the carry trade, adding another layer of risk. If Bitcoin manages to hold the 200-week moving average into July, a counter-trend rally becomes likely. If it breaks, the door to the $54,000 region opens — and the fire-sale band might stay lit a while longer.
