The US and Iran agreed to a peace deal set to be officially signed June 19, sending Bitcoin to a multi-week high just north of $66,000. But the rally comes with a warning: large investors have shed more than 70,000 BTC over the past month, a sign that confidence isn't all that solid. And with the Federal Reserve's first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday, traders are bracing for sharper moves.
Peace deal lifts bitcoin
News of the diplomatic breakthrough broke late last week, and Bitcoin reacted fast — climbing from the low $62,000 range to just over $66,000. That's the highest level in weeks, and the signing ceremony on Friday could provide another jolt if it goes smoothly. But the timing isn't perfect. The FOMC's June 17 meeting falls right between the announcement and the official ceremony, meaning macro risk is front and center.
Whales cash out
Not everyone is buying the rally. Data shows whales — addresses holding large amounts of BTC — have reduced their holdings by over 70,000 Bitcoin in the past month. That's a hefty chunk of supply hitting the market or being moved to exchanges, and it suggests that the biggest players are hedging or taking profits. Analysts are watching closely: if the selling accelerates, it could cap any upside from the peace deal.
Fed spotlight
Wednesday's FOMC meeting is the debut for Chair Kevin Warsh, and markets expect the benchmark rate to stay put in the 3.5%-3.75% range. The real story will be his tone — hawkish or dovish signals could whip crypto prices around. On top of that, the Bank of Japan is considering a rate hike, a move that historically rattles risk assets. Investor focus is squarely on Warsh's speech for clues on the path ahead.
Analysts split on next move
The technical picture is mixed. Analyst Jelle said holding above the $63,000-$64,000 range favors a relief rally. Ali Martinez noted Bitcoin broke through $64,360 resistance and could climb to $67,630 if momentum holds. Ted, however, said staying above $65,000 could push toward $70,000 but he doesn't see enough real strength to confirm that. On the bearish side, analyst symbiote predicted a final bottom around $50,000 and called it a buying opportunity, while Niels forecasted a short-term rise to $70,000-$72,000 but expects a cycle bottom at $55,000 by Q3.
For now, all eyes are on Wednesday — Warsh's first words as Fed chair could decide whether Bitcoin holds its $66,000 gain or fades back toward support. The peace deal signing Friday adds another variable to an already crowded week.
