Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $73,000 level on Friday, reaching its highest since April, but the rally came with a heavy dose of selling pressure. Data from the options and futures markets show sellers were outpacing buyers by roughly $40 million per hour, and the largest US exchange, Coinbase, traded at a small discount relative to Binance — a sign that US-based traders were leading the sell-off.
The $40 Million Per Hour Sell-Off
Net Taker Volume, a measure of aggressive buying versus selling, clocked in at minus $948 million on Friday. That kind of negative reading points to sustained selling pressure, with sellers dominating order books. The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) indicator is improving, and Net Taker Volume is nearing levels that in the past have signaled exhaustion. But for now, the selling hasn't let up.
ETF Outflows Accelerate
Bitcoin ETFs have posted two consecutive weeks of net outflows, with BlackRock's fund alone losing over $1.0 billion last week. The streak suggests institutional appetite has cooled, coinciding with the price weakness. The Coinbase discount — minus 0.21% versus Binance — reinforces the view that US participants are the ones pulling back hardest.
Halving Cycle History Offers Little Comfort
Friday's price action comes 768 days after the last Bitcoin halving. Looking at previous cycles, the bottom didn't arrive until much later: 777 days after the 2012 halving, 889 days after 2016, and 925 days after 2020. If that pattern holds, the market could still be in the middle of a drawn-out bottoming process. Traders are watching whether the selling pressure exhausts before a more sustained recovery.
