Bitcoin slid to around $62,562, its weakest level since February 2025, as U.S. spot ETFs recorded $1.42 billion in outflows for the week ending May 29, 2025. That's the third-worst weekly result on record. Over the preceding three weeks, total outflows from the funds exceeded $4.21 billion — a sign that institutional appetite is cooling fast.
ETF outflows hit third-worst week
The weekly $1.42 billion drain is a sharp reversal from the inflows that dominated much of early 2026. Investors pulled cash for three straight weeks, and the magnitude picked up in the most recent period. The only weeks that saw bigger outflows were during the March 2025 liquidation cascade and the mid-2025 regulatory scare. The trend suggests that even the most committed ETF buyers are getting nervous.
Power Law Oscillator flashes cheap
Bitcoin's Power Law Oscillator — a metric that compares price to its long-term trend — has dropped to 4.4%. That means BTC is cheaper than 95.6% of all historical readings relative to its trend line. The last time the oscillator was this low, the 2022 bear market was ending. It's not a timing signal, but it does put current prices in a zone where long-term buyers have historically found good entries.
Three conditions for a new low
Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, laid out three things that could push Bitcoin even lower: continued acceleration of ETF outflows, a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve at its June or July meetings, and a break in Bitcoin dominance below the 52–54% range. Right now, dominance sits above 60%, which buys some time. But Kendrick says if all three line up, a new cycle low becomes likely.
Bitcoin is already trading near its 200-week simple moving average — a level that marked the floor in previous bear markets. That doesn't guarantee a bounce, but it's a line traders are watching closely.
Standard Chartered sticks with $100K year-end target
Despite the rout, Standard Chartered maintains its year-end Bitcoin target of $100,000, revised back in February 2026. That would require a 60% recovery from current prices. Kendrick described BTC at $100,000 and ETH at $4,000 by the end of 2026 as a level that will be looked back on as the 'buying zone.' It's a bold call given the current momentum, and it leaves the bank in the bull camp while others are turning cautious.
What happens next hinges largely on the Fed. The next rate decision is due later this month, and any hawkish language could spark another wave of ETF outflows. For now, Bitcoin is holding above the 200-week average — but just barely.
