Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 mark this week — a psychological level that often tests investor resolve. But on-chain data shows that long-term holders, often called HODLers, are sitting on a 14-month high in unrealized profit and show no signs of selling. In a stark contrast, the perpetual futures market saw $185 million in long positions liquidated as the price dropped.
Long-term holders stay profitable
The unrealized profit metric for Bitcoin long-term holders hit its highest point in 14 months. That means the average holder who bought more than 155 days ago is sitting on a bigger paper gain than at any point since early 2025. Historically, when this cohort's unrealized profit peaks, it can precede selling. But so far, the data shows no rush to exit. The cohort appears to be waiting for higher prices, or at least not panicking at current levels.
Futures traders take the hit
On the derivatives side, it was a different story. As Bitcoin dipped under $80,000, leveraged long positions got caught. Perpetual futures traders saw $185 million in long liquidations — one of the larger flushing events this year. The liquidation cascade likely added to the downward pressure. With leverage concentrated on one side, the market forced a rapid deleveraging.
Two narratives, one market
The split between spot and futures is unusual. Long-term holders are calm and profitable. Futures traders are nursing losses. That gap often closes as one group's behavior influences the other. If holders start selling, it could accelerate the drop. If the liquidation pressure eases, the dip could be a buying opportunity for those still bullish. The data doesn't point to a clear winner yet.
For now, the market is watching whether the $80,000 level holds. If long-term holders continue to hold, the floor might be stronger than the futures market suggests. The next few days will be key.
