Bitcoin traded above $65,000 on Monday as the crypto market extended a recovery that began late last week. The catalyst? Reports of a framework deal between the U.S. and Iran that eased fears about a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices lower and giving risk assets like Bitcoin a clear runway.
Oil slides, crypto lifts
Crude prices fell sharply after the reports emerged, a sign that investors saw a lower risk of supply cuts in the Middle East. That shift in sentiment didn't stop at energy markets. "Risk-on" appetite spread to equities and crypto, with Bitcoin climbing back above $65K after dipping below $60K earlier this month. The move wasn't dramatic — more of a steady grind — but it broke the pattern of selling that had gripped the market.
The Kalshi call
Prediction market Kalshi now puts odds on Bitcoin reclaiming $73,000 before June ends. That's a roughly 12% jump from current levels, and not an outlandish one if the geopolitical picture stays calm. The platform's forecast reflects the same optimism that lifted prices today: a belief that the U.S.-Iran talks remove a major overhang, letting traders focus on fundamentals again.
Whether $73K arrives in two weeks or not, the recovery has already clawed back most of the month's losses. As of Monday, Bitcoin was roughly flat since June 1 — a quiet win after a rocky start to the quarter.
The next test is whether the U.S.-Iran framework holds. Diplomacy is fragile, and any collapse in talks would reverse the trade in an afternoon. For now, the market is enjoying the calm — and the green candles.
