Bitcoin closed above $80,000 on August 27 for the first time since May, ending at $80,256 after briefly touching $81,500. But the rally stalled after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, which pushed the price down to $76,857. The pullback was sharp, but not enough to break the range that has defined August's breakout.
Warsh's hawkish turn
Warsh stressed the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target and suggested that monetary policy may not yet be restrictive enough. Markets took the hint. The implied probability of a September rate increase jumped from the mid-30% range to about 60%.
Bitcoin closed Friday only about 3% lower and remained above previous range highs through the weekend. That's a sign of resilience, even if the immediate momentum has cooled.
Support at $77,100
Bitfinex identified $77,100 as an important volume-node support level, noting it helped define Bitcoin's August breakout. The recent low of $76,857 came close to that mark, but the price has since held above it. That level is now the line to watch if sellers push again.
ETF inflows stay strong
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $924.5 million in net inflows last week, despite $202 million leaving the products on Friday. The weekly total is notable because it came during a period of price volatility. ETFs had attracted $3.04 billion during the previous nine sessions, so the pace has slowed, but money is still coming in.
Futures and whale wallets
Perpetual futures open interest reached $55.6 billion, about 20% above the start of August. Funding rates and futures basis remained contained, which suggests the move hasn't turned into a leveraged blow-off.
Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have reduced their balances by about 50,500 BTC since late June. Meanwhile, exchange and ETF custodial wallets have added roughly 59,100 BTC. That shift points to coins moving from large private holders into more liquid, institutionally accessible venues.
The question now is whether $77,100 holds. If it does, the range stays intact. If it doesn't, the next test could be the levels that defined July's trading.
