Bitcoin has spent the past week wedged between $63,900 and $65,000, a band so tight that traders are treating it as a waiting room. The next FOMC decision is the obvious exit door — a dovish read could push the price toward $68,000, while a disappointment risks a slide to $45,000.
The range and what's on either side
The daily chart tells the story of a coin that ran hard and gave most of it back. Bitcoin climbed from $75,000 in April to a peak near $126,000 in October, then fell to $58,000 by June. Since then it has been building a base with slightly higher lows. Support sits at $63,900, $60,000 and $58,000; resistance at $68,000, $72,000 and $76,000. The RSI reads 54.15 against a signal line at 49.64 — mildly bullish, but not the kind of momentum that breaks ranges on its own.
The bear case
June brought the worst monthly ETF outflow on record, roughly $4 billion, and Bitcoin finished the first half down nearly 33% while tech stocks rallied. If the FOMC decision disappoints and outflows keep running, the bears see support breaking and the price sliding toward $45,000. That's a long way down from the current band.
What could flip it
The bull side has a longer list. The CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act are both in play as potential legislative tailwinds. Fed rate cuts would help, and Powell's term ends in May. ETF holdings sit just shy of 1.5 million BTC, corporate treasuries keep adding, and a BTC-backed lending market is expected to cross $100 billion. Post-halving cycle patterns and safe-haven demand round out the list.
The supply squeeze underneath
Bitcoin's scarcity keeps getting tighter. Only 1.32 million BTC remain unmined, and roughly 4 million are permanently lost. That leaves a shrinking float for institutions to accumulate. Claude Fable 5's AI model sees the price at $150,000 by December, up from $64,600 at the time of writing.
For now, the tape is quiet. The FOMC decision is the next hard date on the calendar, and until it lands, the range is likely to hold. If it doesn't, $45,000 and $68,000 are the two numbers to watch.
