Bitcoin closed at $63,593 on Tuesday, down 0.5% on the day, as the market continues to digest a roughly 50% drawdown from its 2025 peak. The price has been stuck in a tight $60,000-$66,000 range for weeks, but a new prediction from ChatGPT sees the cryptocurrency reaching $120,000 by the end of 2026, with a stretch target of $140,000.
A $120,000 call from ChatGPT
The AI model's forecast lands as Bitcoin trades about half its all-time high. ChatGPT's base case is $120,000 by year-end, with a bull case of $140,000. That would require a near-doubling from current levels. The model didn't specify a timeline for the stretch target, but the prediction adds to a growing list of bullish calls from various sources.
AI predictions are just predictions, though. They don't move markets on their own. But the timing is interesting: Bitcoin has been consolidating for months, and a breakout above $70,000 could open the door to the $76,000-$82,000 recovery zone, according to chart analysis.
ETF money keeps coming in
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed roughly $52.1 billion in cumulative net inflows, including five straight positive sessions from August 3-7. That steady buying has helped underpin the market even as prices wobble. The inflows suggest institutional demand remains intact, even with Bitcoin well off its highs.
The SEC's approval of in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETFs is another structural improvement. It should make the ETF mechanism more efficient, potentially attracting more capital.
Washington's crypto shift
Regulatory progress has been steady. The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve keeps reserve BTC off the market and directs Treasury and Commerce officials to explore budget-neutral ways to acquire more Bitcoin. Digital assets also have a wider path into 401(k) portfolios, and progress on the CLARITY Act could reduce regulatory uncertainty.
Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins remains a core part of its investment thesis, and the reserve's approach to acquiring more without adding to market supply is a notable development. These moves don't directly pump the price, but they reduce the risk of sudden regulatory shocks. For a market that's been burned by enforcement actions in the past, that's meaningful.
The $60,000 floor that matters
Technically, Bitcoin is in a tight base between $60,000 and $66,000. It fell from above $120,000, spent months printing lower highs, and found buyers around $60,000. Holding that level keeps the base alive. The first serious barrier for bulls is $68,000-$70,000. Above that, the chart opens toward the previous $76,000-$82,000 recovery zone.
The RSI reads 46.55 against a 49.82 signal line, putting sellers slightly ahead. That's not a dramatic bearish signal, but it does suggest momentum is weak. The risks are real: high rates, recession pressure, or sustained ETF withdrawals could trap Bitcoin below $70,000 and send it back toward $50,000-$55,000.
For now, the market is waiting. The next big test is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000. If it does, the AI's $120,000 call starts to look less far-fetched. If it doesn't, the downside could be swift.
