Bitcoin is testing support near $60,000 this week as spot buyers step in, but on-chain metrics paint a picture of a market still in bear territory. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $64,171 Friday, down about 1% over the past day, with a market cap near $1.29 trillion.
On-chain metrics show loss-taking still dominates
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio 30-day average sits at 0.53, meaning losses outweigh profits over the past month. The 90-day average is 1.10, but that's not enough to flip the medium-term trend. Glassnode's True Market Mean — a measure of average cost basis — stands at $77,200, roughly 15% above the current spot price. That's a bearish on-chain regime. Short-Term Holder MVRV has recovered to 0.90 but remains below the 1.0 breakeven line, meaning recent buyers are still underwater on average.
Derivatives calm, orderbook tilts to bids
Derivatives markets suggest a more patient buyer base. Open interest compressed off its late-May high, and funding rates have cooled toward neutral. On Binance, the spot orderbook depth imbalance shows buy-side liquidity outweighing sell orders by the widest margin in recent months. Passive bids clustered near the $60,000 region appear to be defending that level as support.
Capriole Index hits rare depth — with caveats
The Capriole Macro Index Oscillator reads -2.03, one of the deepest prints in its history. Similar readings in late 2018 and mid-2022 lasted about four and two months respectively, both preceding major cycle recoveries. But analyst Charles Edwards cautions that this cycle includes digital-asset-treasury risks and the looming quantum threat — factors absent in earlier downturns.
Technical pivot at $64k–$66k
On the charts, Bitcoin broke down from a parallel ascending channel and hit its $59,000-to-$60,000 target quickly, accompanied by a sharp volume spike and extreme volatility — the kind of flush that can mark a local bottom. The $64,000-to-$66,000 zone is now the decisive pivot. A reclaim from here could open a path to $74,000–$76,000 resistance. But a rejection would trap Bitcoin in the $60,000–$65,000 range, leaving the $60k support vulnerable to another test.
For now, the market waits to see if buyers can reclaim the $64k–$66k zone — or if the bearish on-chain signals keep it pinned lower.
