Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Wednesday after July's consumer price index came in cooler than expected, with annual inflation slowing to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. The modest relief wasn't enough to settle the debate over the Federal Reserve's next move, and some chart watchers still see another leg down for crypto before a real bottom forms.
What the CPI report showed
Prices rose 0.1% month-over-month in July, a slowdown from the prior month's pace. Core inflation — which strips out food and energy — eased to 2.5%, its lowest since February. Gasoline prices fell 2.9% on the month, doing much of the heavy lifting.
That's the headline. But economist Peter Schiff argues the number is misleading. The drop in gas reflects May's oil price crash, he says, not the rebound at the pump that drivers have seen in recent weeks. If he's right, the next report could look worse.
Fed odds barely moved
CME FedWatch still shows a 61.9% chance the Fed holds rates at its September 16 meeting. One more CPI report lands before that decision, so the data could shift quickly. Gold rose 0.5% to about $4,436 an ounce, a sign that inflation hedges remain in demand even as the headline cools.
Bitcoin's bottom is still a question
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $64,051, while Ethereum gained 1.5% to $1,909. Solana added 0.8% and XRP rose 0.2%. But the move is small, and the bigger picture is less comforting. Bitcoin trades roughly 50% below its cycle high, near $64,160.
CryptoQuant notes that the panic selling that marked every past bear market low hasn't arrived yet. Long-term holder aNUPL shows a pattern seen at macro bottoms, but not the emotional and financial exhaustion that typically signals the end. Past lows pushed holder losses far deeper into 'depression' territory.
Some chart watchers still expect a final bear leg before a bottom. The one wildcard: spot Bitcoin ETFs, live since January 2024, may absorb coins from panicked sellers, softening the drop.
What to watch next
The next CPI print, due before the Fed's September meeting, will likely set the tone. If inflation stays sticky, the rate cut narrative weakens — and that's not great for risk assets. If it cools further, the market gets its green light. Either way, Bitcoin's path to a durable bottom probably runs through a few more weeks of uncertainty.
