Bitcoin is trading around $81,000 on Friday, holding above its 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages as the market shifts focus to next week's US inflation data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $27.25 million on Monday, snapping a two-day outflow streak, while Strategy — the Michael Saylor-led firm formerly known as MicroStrategy — added another 535 BTC to its already bulging treasury.
CPI week ahead
The April Consumer Price Index lands Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Forecasts call for a 0.6% monthly rise, down from March's 0.9%, but the annual rate is expected to tick up to 3.7% from 3.3%. Core CPI is seen at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year. Traders are bracing for a volatility spike — a hotter print could test the $80,000 psychological floor, while a cooler number might fuel a run at the 200-day EMA near $82,130.
ETFs flip back to green
Monday's $27.25 million inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a brief two-day losing streak. The flows have been choppy this month, but the pace of institutional accumulation hasn't collapsed. Separately, Strategy bought 535 BTC at an average price of $75,540, pushing its total hoard to 818,869 BTC. The company's average purchase price is now $75,540 — meaning its entire position is in profit at current levels.
Where the charts sit
Bitcoin is holding above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,962 and the 50- and 100-day EMAs clustered near $76,700. The 4-hour RSI sits at 55, and the MACD is mildly positive — bullish momentum without overheating. On the upside, resistance comes at the 200-day EMA ($82,130), then the 61.8% Fib at $83,437, and a horizontal barrier at $84,410. If the CPI print triggers a selloff, watch $80,000 first, then $78,962 (50% Fib), then the EMA cluster around $76,200–76,600, and finally the channel top at $75,680.
The CPI release at 12:30 GMT Tuesday will be the next real catalyst. Until then, Bitcoin looks content to consolidate just below the 200-day line.
