Bitcoin is holding onto a key support level and grinding higher this week, but the technical picture remains clouded by an active death cross. At the same time, prediction markets are overwhelmingly bearish on the leading cryptocurrency, signaling that traders expect more downside ahead.
Death cross still in play
The 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average several weeks ago, a pattern known as a death cross. That signal is still active. Historically, the death cross doesn't always precede a crash — sometimes it marks a bottom — but its presence keeps a lid on bullish conviction. Bitcoin has managed to bounce off support, but the moving averages haven't recrossed yet. Until they do, the technical setup leans cautious.
Prediction markets lean bearish
On platforms like Polymarket and others, bettors are piling into contracts that pay out if Bitcoin falls below certain thresholds over the next month. The odds of a drop below $50,000, for example, have climbed above 60% this week. That's a stark contrast to the price action, which shows Bitcoin grinding up from recent lows. The divergence suggests the rally is being treated as a bear market bounce rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Support holds — for now
Bitcoin has repeatedly tested and held a key support zone near $55,000 over the past two weeks. Each test has been met with buying, but the recoveries have been shallow. Volume is declining on the bounces, a sign that momentum is fading. If support breaks, the next major level sits around $48,000. If it holds, the death cross could eventually resolve to the upside — but prediction markets aren't betting on that outcome.
The death cross will remain in effect until the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day. That could take weeks, even if Bitcoin rallies. In the meantime, the bearish sentiment on prediction markets adds a layer of skepticism to any price gains. Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim $60,000 in the coming days — a level that would start to shift the narrative. If it fails, the support zone near $55,000 will face another test, and this time the bears might get their way.
