Bitcoin traded around $63,000 on Monday, roughly half its all-time high of $126,279 hit in October 2025. The slide comes as retail money rotates into AI stocks and the upcoming SpaceX IPO, while corporate treasuries unwind positions. Still, 61% of circulating supply hasn't budged in over a year — a sign the core holder base isn't panicking.
Why the dip hurts differently this time
Bernstein analysts maintain their $150,000 price target for 2026, calling Bitcoin's 'store of value' thesis intact despite the bloodbath. But the math is harder this cycle. Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries slowed to $12 billion in 2026, down from $60 billion the year before. That's a five-fold drop in fresh demand.
The selling pressure, Bernstein says, isn't coming from ETF holders — spot ETFs recorded only $2.6 billion in net outflows year-to-date. Instead, corporate treasury desks have been liquidating. The analysts draw a comparison to the 2022 bear market, when BlackRock's private Bitcoin trust set the stage for the eventual IBIT ETF launch. The implication: institutional interest may just be resting, not dead.
Regulation catches up — slowly
The CLARITY Act, which would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC, cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 and passed the House 294-134. That's a concrete legislative win in a year when crypto has mostly been a headline risk. The bill hasn't hit the president's desk yet, but the bipartisan margins suggest it could survive a veto threat.
Where retail money went
Capital rotation is real. AI stocks have been eating crypto's lunch on retail trading apps, and the SpaceX IPO — targeting a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation — is sucking up speculative dollars that might have gone into Bitcoin a year ago. The timing isn't great for crypto: the CLARITY Act passage should be a bullish signal, but it's being drowned out by the noise from the equity side.
A familiar pattern
Bernstein's comparison to 2022 is worth watching. That year, BlackRock launched a private trust for Bitcoin before filing for its spot ETF — the IBIT that eventually drew billions. No similar 'Trojan horse' is visible now, but the fact that 61% of supply is dormant suggests longer-term holders are betting on a repeat: they sit tight, regulation improves, and the next catalyst arrives.
The next concrete milestone is the CLARITY Act's path to law, and whether the SEC and CFTC can agree on implementation rules before year-end. Meanwhile, the SpaceX IPO closes for retail investors later this month — a direct test of whether crypto can reclaim attention.
