President Trump confirmed on Monday that the US-Iran peace deal will be signed later this week, sending stock index futures sharply higher and pushing Bitcoin up more than 3%. The agreement, which caps months of backchannel negotiations, also triggered a steep drop in oil prices as traders priced in an end to supply disruption fears. Veteran trader Peter Brandt, in a note published this morning, forecast a major S&P 500 rally on the back of the deal, calling it a catalyst for a broader risk-on rotation.
Peace deal timeline locked in
Trump did not specify the exact signing date but said it would happen “within days” during a brief press appearance. The deal is expected to normalize diplomatic relations and lift sanctions that had cut Iranian oil exports by roughly 1.5 million barrels per day. Details of the agreement remain under wraps, but the administration signaled that Iran would halt uranium enrichment in exchange for relief from banking and energy restrictions.
Futures rip, oil tanks
US stock index futures rallied overnight, with S&P 500 e-mini contracts climbing about 1.5% before the cash open. The move was broad-based, lifted by transportation and energy stocks that had been battered by sanctions uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude futures slid more than 5% as traders unwound geopolitical risk premia. Brent crude dipped below $71, its lowest intraday level since March.
Brandt’s call
Brandt, a well-known commodity and crypto trader, wrote that the deal removes “the last major geopolitical cloud” hanging over equities. He predicted the S&P 500 could test its all-time high of 6,200 within weeks, supported by declining oil prices that effectively act as a tax cut for consumers. Brandt declined to comment further when reached by GFdaily, but the timing of his forecast — issued hours after Trump’s confirmation — caught traders’ attention.
Bitcoin rides the wave
Bitcoin climbed from $68,200 to as high as $70,500 in the hours after the announcement, breaking a week-long range. The move mirrored the broader risk-on mood in traditional markets, with BTC/USD tracking equity futures higher. Crypto traders noted that the correlation with the S&P 500 has tightened in 2026, reducing Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a hedge but amplifying its upside when macro headlines turn positive. Volume on spot exchanges picked up 30% compared with the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.
The big question now is whether peace in the Middle East can sustain the rally or whether traders will “buy the rumor, sell the fact” once the treaty is actually signed. The signing ceremony is expected to take place within the week, and the administration said more details on the de-escalation roadmap would follow.
