Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says Bitcoin has likely found its cycle bottom around $60,000, a call that aligns with several on-chain metrics showing the market isn't panicking. Armstrong, who said he's 'as bullish as ever' and still long on Bitcoin, pointed to the asset's four-year cycle, which has alternated between bull and bear markets since 2012. Bitcoin was trading near $65,000 at the time of his comments.
The cycle argument
Armstrong's prediction hinges on the pattern of four-year cycles that have governed Bitcoin's price swings for over a decade. The latest downturn saw Bitcoin dip to roughly $60,000 in June, a level he believes marks the trough. While past cycles have delivered sharper drawdowns, Armstrong stressed he remains confident in the longer-term trajectory. His outlook echoes the historical rhythm: each cycle has produced a bottom that eventually gave way to a new rally.
What the models show
BeInCrypto's macro model gives a nuanced read. Its dislocation gauge — which measures how far price is from fair value — scores Bitcoin as cheap at 89.55 out of 100. But the overall model sits at a neutral 50.4 out of 100, held back by a zero capitulation reading. That means no panic selling, which in previous cycles has been a hallmark of final bottoms. The model also reports a 0.79 correlation between Bitcoin and a stock/dollar basket, suggesting macro forces are still in play.
Santiment's negative sentiment gauge stayed calm at 88 during the June low near $60,000. That's a stark contrast from February, when the same gauge spiked to 1,908, marking a local bottom. The lack of fear this time around suggests the market absorbed the drop without the emotional blow-off that often ends a selloff.
Long-term holders aren't sweating
Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) remained positive throughout this cycle, bottoming at +0.19 in June. In past bear markets, NUPL dipped into negative territory — for instance, -0.24 in November 2022. That long-term holders stayed profitable even near the low is unusual and supports the idea that this isn't a full-blown bear market. It also means less forced selling from those who've held through the volatility.
Armstrong didn't give a price target, but his conviction is clear. With Bitcoin now back above $65,000, the question is whether the next leg up has already started — or if the market needs another shakeout to finally trigger that capitulation reading. For now, the data says the bottom might already be in the rearview mirror.
