Bitcoin's on-chain data is sending mixed signals this week. The proportion of coins held for at least a year has hit levels not seen since October 2025 – over 70% of the circulating supply, roughly 15 million BTC. At the same time, miner reserves on Binance slipped from 41,987 to 41,915 in May, pointing to continued selling pressure from miners.
Miner reserves edge lower
The drop in miner reserves is small – about 72 BTC – but it's consistent with a broader trend. Analysts describe current miner behavior as a 'wait phase' typical near cycle bottoms. The Miner Position Index remains below historical panic-selling thresholds, and the Puell Multiple is under 1, meaning miner revenue is low relative to long-term averages. That's not a panic signal, but it's not a buying spree either.
Long-term holders dig in
Meanwhile, the 1Y+ Long Term Holder metric has entered what analysts call an 'oversold' accumulation zone. Past instances of this setup – in 2013, 2016, 2019, and late 2022 – all preceded major price climbs. The exception was 2022, when the FTX collapse derailed the pattern. The current reading suggests investors who've held for over a year are refusing to sell, even as miners trim positions.
Weekly RSI retest – a rare signal
Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index has retested the 50 level, 105 days after falling into oversold territory. That's only the fourth such occurrence on record. Three of the four previous retests led to long-term price expansion. The one that didn't? 2022, again because of the FTX shock. The pattern is bullish on its own, but fragile.
What analysts are watching
Analyst Sykodelic put it bluntly: the odds of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 are 'extremely slim.' The bullish outlook hinges on avoiding external shocks similar to the FTX collapse. No one is calling a top yet, but the data suggests the market is in a waiting game – miners selling, holders holding, and a rare RSI pattern flashing potential upside. The next move depends on whether the macro environment cooperates.
