Bitcoin's long-term holder count climbed to a new all-time high of 15.8 million this week, according to on-chain data. That's the most addresses holding BTC for more than 155 days since the metric started tracking. But the milestone comes as bitcoin itself keeps falling — down 9% from its May 6 peak near $82,000 and trading around $74,000 at press time. The divergence between growing hodler numbers and a sliding price is raising questions about whether this is a bullish accumulation phase or a sign of weak demand.
The hodler paradox
Long-term holder growth has historically been a bullish signal. When more people refuse to sell, supply gets locked up, and a squeeze can push prices higher. But XWIN Research this week offered a more cautious read: the increase may actually reflect a lack of fresh buying interest. If no new demand shows up to absorb supply, the holders are just sitting on paper losses. The metric hit 15.8 million addresses — up from roughly 15.1 million at the start of May — but that accumulation hasn't translated into a price rally.
Whales and dolphins are pulling back
The picture gets more complicated when you look at bigger players. Whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have seen their growth stall and are now heading toward a year-over-year decline. Dolphin addresses — those with 100 to 1,000 BTC — have been shrinking since early 2025. That means the largest cohort of holders is expanding, but the mid- and upper-tier investors are stepping back. It's not the kind of broad-based conviction you'd want to see ahead of a breakout.
What analysts see ahead
CryptoPredictions isn't optimistic for the near term. The firm expects bitcoin to close June around $71,102, with a peak of $84,961 and a worst-case floor of $57,774. That's a wide range — more than $27,000 — reflecting the uncertainty in the market right now. Bitcoin is already down 3.45% on the week and 3.95% on the month. If the low-end forecast holds, we're looking at another 22% drop from current levels. The question is whether the record hodler base will start to crack if prices keep sliding toward $57,000.
