Long-term holders now control 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply — an all-time high. According to K33 Research Head of Research Vetle Lunde, a record share of supply held by this cohort has historically coincided with the end of every major bear market in Bitcoin's history. The data point arrives as BTC trades near $65,000, up 5.5% over the past week but still down roughly 16% month-over-month and nearly 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198.
79% of supply locked up
The percentage of coins that haven't moved in two years or more hit a new peak this month. Only 218,421 BTC aged two years or older had been reactivated as of June 6 — a near-historic low. The only year with lower reactivation by the same date was 2012 (70,600 BTC). For context, 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated by June 6, 2024. That's a massive drop-off in selling from long-term believers.
Bear market signals mounting
It's not just holder behavior. ETF outflows, the dominant source of selling pressure in recent months, have eased. Trading volume has retreated to yearly lows, a pattern K33 associates with late stages of Bitcoin bear markets. Meanwhile, 50% of BTC's circulating supply is now underwater — a level reached historically only within weeks of major bear market bottoms, though often with one final leg lower before a turn.
Some forecasts put Bitcoin as low as $30,000 before any sustained recovery. Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have flagged that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand haven't yet reached levels consistent with a durable reversal.
Macro overhang: FOMC and rate uncertainty
Bitcoin's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 sits near 0.6, making it sensitive to macro developments. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — is expected to hold rates steady. Still, markets price in the possibility of further hikes later in 2026. That macro uncertainty could either delay or accelerate the bottoming process, depending on the tone from the Fed.
The key unresolved question: will the final leg down to the $30,000 area materialize, or does the record holder conviction signal we're already there? The data says the last major bear market turns have started with exactly this mix of holder conviction and exhausted selling. But no one's calling the bottom yet.
