Long-term Bitcoin holders — those who have held their coins for at least five years — have pulled back sharply on selling, with the 90-day average of BTC spent dropping to 962. That's the lowest reading in nearly two years, according to on-chain data. Bitcoin traded around $63,000 on Wednesday, and prediction market Polymarket puts a 99.95% probability on the price staying above $54,000.
The sell-off slowdown
The 90-day moving average of spending from five-year-old coins fell to 962 BTC. That's a fraction of what it was during the mid-2024 sell-offs, and it suggests that the cohort of investors who rode the market through multiple cycles simply isn't interested in cashing out right now. The last time this metric was this low was in late 2024, when Bitcoin was trading in the $40,000 range.
What the market sees
Bitcoin's price has held above $60,000 for most of June, and the Polymarket contract on BTC staying above $54,000 through year-end is trading at 99.95%. That's not a guarantee — prediction markets have been wrong before — but it reflects a market that sees very little downside risk in the near term. The combination of low seller volume and a stable price floor has traders watching for any sign of a breakout or a surprise dip.
Why holders are holding
For five-year holders, the average cost basis is well below current prices, so the incentive to sell isn't from fear of losses. It's more likely a bet on further upside — or simply a lack of urgency. With inflation still a concern in traditional markets and Bitcoin's halving now more than a year in the rearview, these investors appear content to wait. Whether that patience pays off depends on demand from new buyers, which has been steady but unspectacular this quarter.
The next real test comes later this summer, when the U.S. federal budget deadline and potential rate decisions could rattle risk assets. For now, the long-term crowd isn't moving.
