Bitcoin's price is stuck in a bearish rut, and analysts are split on how deep it might go before the cycle turns. One firm warns the real bottom isn't in yet, pointing to historical patterns that suggest a drop to the $50,000–$55,000 range is still ahead. Another sees a near-term retest of the lower $70,000s, then a rally to new all-time highs by year's end. Bitcoin was trading around $75,400 on Friday, down more than 2% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.
The bottom isn't in, says one analyst
Analyst Chain Mind argues that Bitcoin's price has not yet bottomed, and that historically it never hits a cycle low without first touching the weekly EMA300. In 2020 the bottom came 10% below that moving average; in 2022 it was 15% below. This time around, Bitcoin bounced from $60,000 without ever reaching the EMA300, which Chain Mind says suggests the real floor is still ahead. If the pattern holds, the firm predicts a drop to roughly $58,000 for the cycle's final low.
Chain Mind also notes that Bitcoin is mirroring its 2022 price action after being rejected at the 200-day moving average near $82,000. That rejection confirms a bearish macro structure, according to the firm. If the 2022 pattern repeats, a 40% to 60% decline from the rejection point would put the cycle bottom in the $50,000–$55,000 zone.
The bearish backdrop isn't helping
The current environment is stacked with headwinds. The US-Iran conflict, rising inflation, growing bets of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, and the SEC's continued delay on approving tokenized stocks are all weighing on sentiment. None of those catalysts look likely to vanish soon.
A more optimistic timeline
Analyst Kaleo offers a different read. He predicts a retest of the lower $70,000 range in the near term, followed by a rebound to $80,000–$90,000 for the summer. Then, in the fall and winter, he expects a rally above $100,000 to a new all-time high. Kaleo's forecast doesn't ignore the current pain, but it sees a clear path back up.
The CLARITY Act wildcard
Kaleo also flags the CLARITY Act as a potential major shift. If the legislation passes, he says it could spark a massive Bitcoin rally. The bill's fate remains uncertain, but it's one of the few concrete catalysts on the horizon that could shift the macro picture.
For now, the market is caught between two very different maps of the road ahead. One says brace for another leg down. The other says the worst is almost over.
