Bitcoin’s market value to realized value ratio dropped to 1.1 this week — its lowest point in 27 months. CryptoQuant analysts say that level, often called the 'cheap zone,' has preceded every major market bottom since 2018. The reading suggests bitcoin may be undervalued relative to its realized cap, a metric that tracks the average price at which each coin last moved.
A metric that’s called the shots
The MVRV ratio compares bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap. When it falls to 1.1, it means the market is pricing coins at just 10% above what holders paid on aggregate. Historically, that’s been the floor before reversals. Past bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022 all lined up with similar or identical readings.
That doesn’t guarantee a bottom now — but it’s a statistical pattern that’s held for nearly a decade.
What CryptoQuant said
Analysts at CryptoQuant highlighted the drop in a research note this week. They didn’t call a bottom outright, but noted the ratio’s track record. The firm’s on-chain data has become a go-to for traders looking past price noise.
The timing isn’t great for bulls. Bitcoin has been stuck in a range, and macro headwinds — rate uncertainty, regulatory overhang — haven’t let up. But the MVRV signal is one of the few that’s consistently called turns.
What comes next
No one knows if this is ‘the’ bottom. But if history repeats, the next few weeks could show whether the cheap zone still works. The 1.1 level is the line to watch. CryptoQuant said it’ll keep tracking the metric — no grand predictions, just data.
