Bitcoin hovered near $64,800 on Thursday, up roughly 1.2% over the past week, as bulls tried to push above $65,000. But beneath the modest green candle, a deeper debate is playing out: Has the market already found its floor, or is the worst still ahead?
Ali Martinez sees a familiar bottom signal
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed to a bullish divergence between Bitcoin's price and Net Capital Flows — the same pattern that preceded the last cycle bottom before a rally from roughly $15,000 to $126,000. He also noted that the SuperTrend indicator has flashed a buy signal. For Martinez, the setup looks like a repeat of the 2022-2023 accumulation phase.
Doctor Profit's buying zone
Analyst Doctor Profit took a more measured view, calling the $64,000-to-$54,000 range a buying opportunity. He stressed that predicting exact bottoms is less useful than identifying regions where risk-reward tilts in favor of buyers. The range is wide, but the message is clear: he sees value here.
Fidelity's yardstick points to October
Fidelity reported that its proprietary Yardstick metric has fallen to levels historically associated with undervaluation — similar to past accumulation phases and relative market bottoms. If the current cycle follows historical patterns, October 2026 could be an important period. That's a specific, testable claim, and it gives traders a timeline to watch.
CryptoQuant warns the leverage is too high
Not everyone is convinced. CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno argued it's too early to call a bottom. He pointed to the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance, which climbed to roughly 0.22 — the highest of the current cycle. That level of leverage makes the market sensitive to price swings. A similar pattern occurred during the 2022 bear market before the cycle low, but high leverage was part of the instability, not a confirmation of a bottom. Moreno's point: you can't trust a bottom signal when the system is stretched.
The question now is whether the bullish divergence and Fidelity's metric outweigh the leverage risk. October is two months away. If the market holds, the bulls might have a case. If leverage starts to unwind, the $64,000 level could break fast.
