Bitcoin suffered its worst single-week loss since the FTX crash in November 2022, closing the week of June 5 down nearly 20%. The cryptocurrency slid to $59,000 — its lowest since early 2024 — before recovering to around $63,000 as of writing. The steep decline shook out overleveraged positions, but on-chain analysts argue the market is entering a major accumulation phase rather than a structural breakdown.
The Numbers Behind the Drop
Long-term holders moved more than $3.25 billion worth of spot Bitcoin during the sell-off. That kind of distribution typically marks the final stage of supply absorption before the market turns. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss spiked past 10.46 million coins. According to Ali Martinez, every previous instance where supply-in-loss crossed the 10 million threshold accurately timed macro bottoms in prior cycles.
What the On-Chain Data Says
Martinez identified two accumulation zones based on MVRV band analysis. The first sits between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV bands, which correspond to roughly $53,900 and $43,150. Three key moving averages also frame the current landscape: the 200-week simple moving average at $62,800, the 300-week at $55,000, and the 400-week at $42,500. Bitcoin's recovery above the 200-week SMA suggests the asset is testing support from that line.
The Psychology of a Cycle Bottom
Analyst Benjamin Cowen echoed the accumulation thesis. He said investor psychology is approaching territory historically associated with major cycle bottoms. That phase, he estimates, could stretch through Q3 and possibly into October. The timing isn't great for anyone hoping for a quick V-shaped recovery — but the on-chain picture is starting to look like the kind of setup that has preceded real uptrends before.
The open question is whether price will actually test the lower accumulation zones around $43,000. That level aligns with the 400-week moving average and the bottom of the MVRV band range. If it holds, the current cycle could be following the same script as previous ones. If it doesn't, the data will need to be rewritten.
