A widely cited Bitcoin price model is projecting a conservative target of $255,000 by the end of 2026. At the same time, analysts at Bernstein and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes are predicting the cryptocurrency will hit new record highs this year. The twin forecasts add to a building wave of bullish sentiment in crypto markets as the second half of the year approaches.
The $255,000 target
The price model — which the researchers describe as conservative — calls for Bitcoin to more than triple from current levels by December 31. The projection is based on a blend of on-chain metrics and historical cycle patterns, according to the model's creators. It does not account for any sudden regulatory shifts or macroeconomic shocks, but its authors say the trajectory is supported by steadily growing institutional adoption and tightening supply dynamics.
If Bitcoin reaches $255,000, it would shatter the previous all-time high set earlier in the cycle. The model's output has been tracked by analysts for years and has a mixed but generally bullish track record at cycle peaks.
Bernstein and Hayes weigh in
Bernstein's crypto team, one of the most closely watched institutional research groups on Wall Street, has published a note stating that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026. The firm cites the upcoming supply squeeze from the halving and increased demand from spot ETFs as key catalysts. The report does not specify an exact price target but says the conditions are in place for a breakout above previous peaks.
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX and a vocal Bitcoin bull, has also forecast new records this year. In a recent blog post, Hayes argued that central bank liquidity cycles and the weakening dollar are creating a perfect environment for Bitcoin to rally. He has previously called for prices well above $100,000 and reiterated that view for 2026.
Neither Bernstein nor Hayes provided a specific date or price level for the predicted new record, but both framed their outlook as a matter of when, not if.
The convergence of model-based projections and analyst calls gives traders a clear set of benchmarks to watch. Whether $255,000 or a different number marks the peak, the next few months will put these forecasts to the test.
