James Check, founder of Checkonchain and co-author of Cointime Economics, said this week that Bitcoin is becoming the most underowned and least-forced-sale asset as market conditions shift. He points to rotations from AI stocks and a wave of upcoming IPOs as the key drivers behind this setup. The comment comes as investors eye the next leg of the crypto cycle.
Why AI stock rotations matter
Check argues that the recent rotation out of AI-focused equities is freeing up capital that has few natural homes right now. With many AI names still trading at high multiples and uncertainty around earnings, money managers are looking for assets that aren't over-owned or vulnerable to a mass sell-off. Bitcoin, in his view, fits that description better than most.
“The rotation from AI stocks is creating a capital overhang that has to go somewhere,” Check said, according to his公开发表的 analysis. “Bitcoin is one of the few large liquid assets that isn’t already held by everyone and isn’t likely to be dumped in a forced sale.”
The IPO wave ahead
Beyond AI rotations, Check highlighted the coming IPO pipeline as a factor that could further tilt the playing field. A slew of high-profile companies are expected to go public in the second half of 2026. That process typically locks up institutional capital and reduces appetite for risk-on bets like crypto — at least in the short term.
But Check sees it differently. He argues that once those IPOs price and the initial demand fades, the capital that didn't get allocated will need new homes. Bitcoin, he says, stands out because it's “the most underowned” compared to other major assets. “There's no forced selling pressure from a massive ETF unwind or a leveraged player cascade,” he noted. “It's a clean slate.”
Bitcoin’s position in the cycle
Check’s framework rests on the idea that Bitcoin’s value proposition as a non-sovereign store of value becomes most attractive when other markets are in flux. With AI stocks rotating and IPO excitement pulling attention, Bitcoin is being overlooked—and that, he believes, is exactly the setup that precedes a big move.
He didn’t offer a price target or a timeline. But he stressed that the “least-forced-sale” characteristic means any downside from here is likely limited compared to assets that are crowded or levered. For now, his firm’s on-chain data doesn’t flag any obvious red flags in Bitcoin’s network activity.
Check is known for co-developing the Cointime Economics model, which adjusts traditional metrics like market cap and realized cap for the age of coins. His latest call puts him in the camp of analysts who see the current sideways price action as a consolidation phase rather than the end of the cycle. Whether that plays out will depend on how fast the AI rotation and IPO wave actually reshape capital flows.
