Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 over the weekend, extending its recovery from February lows and closing in on the 200-day exponential moving average. The move comes just as traders brace for a packed macro week that includes April CPI, PPI, retail sales, and Jerome Powell's last day as Fed Chair. Bitcoin traded at $81,269 Monday, holding within a month-long ascending channel that points to the next technical target of $83,400.
Bitcoin's technical setup
The daily Relative Strength Index sits at 65.56, with its moving average at 61.89 — both in bullish territory. The RSI has climbed without interruption since briefly piercing oversold conditions three months ago. But historically, daily RSI pushes above 70 precede short-term cooling phases. So traders are watching whether momentum can carry Bitcoin through the 200-day EMA resistance at $82,036 without overheating.
Macro hurdles ahead
This week's data docket is heavy. April CPI lands Tuesday, followed by PPI and the OPEC report Wednesday, retail sales Thursday, and industrial production Friday — the same day Jerome Powell hands over the Fed chair. The timing isn't great for a risk asset that's already up 35% from its February lows near $60,000. A hot CPI print could spook rate-sensitive markets and test the rally's staying power.
Trump's Iran comments, no new sanctions
Over the weekend, Donald Trump accused Iran of delaying negotiations for 47 years and claimed the Obama administration transferred $1.7 billion in cash to Tehran. He did not announce new sanctions or military steps. The comments had no immediate market impact — Bitcoin's weekend rally was driven by technicals and renewed spot ETF inflows, not geopolitics.
The ascending channel that has contained price action since February remains intact. If it holds, the $83,400 Fibonacci projection is the next logical target. The open question is whether the RSI can push above 70 without triggering a selloff — or whether this week's macro data forces a pause first.
