Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000 on Monday, recovering some ground after weeks of steady selling pressure from U.S. spot ETFs. Data from Galaxy Research shows that net outflows from those funds slowed to $226.8 million in the week ending June 18 — a sharp drop from the $1.72 billion shed in the first week of June. The six-week total now sits at $5.94 billion, the longest consecutive net outflow streak since the products launched, but the pace is clearly cooling.
ETF outflows ease, but streak continues
For six straight weeks, investors have pulled money out of spot Bitcoin ETFs — a record run. Yet last week's number, just over $226 million, is a fraction of the prior week's outflow. Analysts at Bitfinex note that funding rates remain subdued and there's no leverage expansion, which suggests spot order books are driving price action, not derivatives. Over the past 30 days, the funds have shed a record $6.35 billion. The question now is whether the slowdown signals exhaustion among sellers, or just a pause before another leg down.
Corporate buyers load up
While retail and institutional ETF investors have been net sellers, two corporate treasuries have gone the other way. Strategy (MSTR) bought 520 BTC for about $35 million at an average price of $67,068 per coin, bringing its total hoard to 847,363 BTC. The company also raised its USD reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion, giving it more firepower. Meanwhile, Strive, Inc. (ASST) made its largest single-week acquisition yet: 759 BTC for roughly $50 million at $65,850 per coin. Strive now holds 19,864 BTC.
Options market flashing caution
The options market is telling a more cautious story. One-week implied volatility has cratered from 60% to 36%, but that's partly because realized volatility has climbed above implied — currently 1-month IV near 39% against realized above 42%. A large negative gamma cluster sits near $62,000, with roughly $1.8 billion in short gamma, meaning dealers may need to hedge by selling into any drop toward that level. Options traders are still paying a premium for downside protection, keeping the volatility premium and 25-delta skew elevated.
The macro backdrop turned more hawkish after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting. He reiterated a commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target, and CME FedWatch now implies a 36% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting — at least one 25-basis-point hike before year-end. The U.S. dollar index recovered to the 100.6–100.8 range. On the positive side, progress on the U.S.-Iran peace deal briefly lifted risk assets by reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though the effect was short-lived. Next catalysts include any shift in guidance from Warsh or progress on the CLARITY Act through Congress. Bitcoin, still roughly 50% below its October record of $126,080, has room to run — if the selling pressure keeps fading.
