Bitcoin's recent bounce got a boost from an in-line U.S. inflation print and easing geopolitical tensions. But crypto trading firm Wintermute is cautioning that the move doesn't yet confirm a durable bottom — not without a clear return of ETF, stablecoin, and digital asset treasury inflows.
The macro tailwind
Wednesday's consumer price index came in as expected, giving risk assets some breathing room after weeks of jitters over sticky inflation. That, combined with signs of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, helped push Bitcoin back above the $70,000 mark this week. The macro setup is finally cooperating after a rough May.
Wintermute's caution
Wintermute, a major market maker, isn't ready to call the bottom. In a note shared with clients, the firm argued that the current rally lacks the structural inflows that typically signal a real recovery. Without a sustained pickup in spot Bitcoin ETF volumes, stablecoin supply growth, and corporate treasury purchases, the move could fizzle.
The warning lands at a tricky moment. ETF flows have been choppy since April, and stablecoin market cap has stagnated. Wintermute's point is that a few good days of price action don't rewrite the demand picture.
What to watch
For now, the market is watching for a sustained return of institutional flows. If ETF inflows turn positive for a full week and stablecoin supply starts expanding again, the bottom call gets easier. Until then, Wintermute's skepticism is worth taking seriously.
