Bitcoin pushed back above a widely watched long-term valuation gauge this week, with its MVRV Z-Score climbing above its 365-day average for the first time in months. The metric, which compares market value to realized value, is often used to gauge whether the asset is stretched relative to where coins last moved. The reclaim came as BTC touched $87,096 on October 2 — its highest level since September 23 — before fading slightly.
The move marks a 15.6% recovery from the September 15 low of $75,170. At press time, Bitcoin was changing hands at $85,990, up 0.86% over the past 24 hours.
The 200-week line held
James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington Altus, said the weekly chart is showing a strong setup after the recent correction held around the rising 200-week moving average. That level has acted as a floor in past drawdowns. More recently, Bitcoin's 30-week and 40-week exponential moving averages have turned upward since the June low, and price has reclaimed both. Thorne framed that as an intermediate trend shift from bearish to bullish.
Shorter-term holders are sitting on paper gains again. The 1-to-3-month cohort currently shows an average unrealized profit margin of 24%, the largest since May 2025. That's a double-edged number: it signals conviction among recent buyers, but it also raises the odds of profit-taking if price stalls.
A wall of sell orders on Binance
Glassnode flagged a significant concentration of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on Binance's spot market that had pinned Bitcoin down for roughly a week. Buyers finally absorbed that supply on October 2, letting BTC push toward $87,000. After the breakout, sell orders above the market thinned out, and some existing orders were pulled entirely — a classic sign that sellers were repositioning rather than doubling down.
It isn't clear yet whether that absorption was a one-off or the start of a broader shift. The order book remains light above the market, which cuts both ways: less resistance, but also less cushion if sentiment turns.
Resistance at $87,400, support at $82,500
The next major hurdle sits around $87,400, which QCP identified as September's high. A clean break there would put $90,000 back in play — a level that matters both psychologically and in the options market, where strikes cluster around round numbers. To the downside, QCP sees $82,500 as a key support area.
For now, the market is caught between improving medium-term momentum and a rally that has already run 15.6% off the lows. The 24% unrealized profit among 1-to-3-month holders is the kind of number that tends to precede at least some distribution. Whether buyers can keep absorbing it above $85,000 is the immediate question.
The next test is whether BTC can close a daily candle above $87,400. Fail there, and the $82,500 support QCP highlighted becomes the line to watch.
