Bitcoin has climbed back from the $60K demand zone and reclaimed the $72K-$74K range, trading around $78K as of this week. The rally has pushed the asset above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, but it hasn't been enough to break the $80K resistance. That ceiling is now the key battleground, with short-term momentum flashing warning signs.
The push toward $80K
Bitcoin's recovery has been steady. It reclaimed the $72K-$74K zone after a sharp rebound off the $60K area, and it now sits above the 100-day moving average (around $66K) and the 200-day (near $70K). The price is trying to close above $80K, but that level has held as resistance.
The $80K-$82K region is the major supply zone to watch. If Bitcoin can break through that, the path opens toward $95K. But the repeated rejection at $80K suggests buyers still need more time to build momentum.
Short-term signals are flashing red
The daily RSI has surged into overbought territory, which typically means the move is extended and a consolidation or retracement is likely. On the 4-hour chart, a bearish divergence is visible: price made a higher high while RSI formed a lower high. That's a classic sign of weakening short-term momentum, even if the larger trend remains intact.
That doesn't mean a crash is coming. It just suggests the market may need to pause. If price pulls back, the immediate support sits at $72K-$74K. Losing that would open the door to a retest of the $64K area, where the 100-day average could provide a floor.
On-chain data shows profit-taking, not panic
Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has rebounded sharply, and its 30-day EMA has moved above the 1.0 threshold. That means holders are selling at a profit, not in distress. In the past, a sustained aSOPR above 1 has supported a transition toward a healthier bullish structure.
If aSOPR stays above 1 during any pullback, it suggests sellers are taking gains rather than capitulating. A drop back below 1 would weaken the bullish case, pointing to real selling pressure.
The next test
The market is stuck between a bullish daily structure and short-term bearish signals. The next move depends on whether Bitcoin can hold the $72K-$74K support on any retest, and whether aSOPR remains above 1. If the $80K-$82K resistance finally breaks, the rally to $95K is in play. If not, expect a sideways grind until a clearer signal emerges.
