Bitcoin briefly pushed past the $81,000 mark on Wednesday before settling back, extending a recovery that has added 10% over the past month. The move comes five weeks after Bitcoin's weekly MACD flashed a bullish crossover on April 13 — its first such signal since early 2025 — and traders are now watching whether the next resistance zone can hold.
What the MACD crossover has historically meant
The weekly MACD crossover on April 13 has so far delivered roughly a 15% gain for Bitcoin since it triggered. That's a modest start compared with previous cycles. In October 2023, a similar crossover preceded a 147% rally. October 2024 delivered 75%, and May 2025 brought 35%. Each time, the move was smaller than the one before, but the pattern still puts the bulls in a decent spot if history is any guide.
The key question now is whether Bitcoin can close the week above $81,000. A weekly close at that level or higher would strengthen the bullish argument, with the next targets sitting at $86,000–$89,000 and eventually $100,000. The 200-day moving average, a widely watched trend gauge, is currently parked between $83,000 and $85,000 — the same zone that marks the next major resistance.
Miners are accumulating, not selling
Another signal supporting the recovery is the Miners' Position Index (MPI). The MPI dropped below -1.0 during Bitcoin's February lows near $60,000, a level that historically indicates miners are accumulating rather than dumping. It remains below zero today, suggesting subdued selling pressure from the mining sector.
When miners hold instead of sell, it removes a chunk of potential overhead supply. That's especially relevant given the demand side of the equation has been absorbing profit-taking without much trouble.
Profit-taking hit a cycle high, but demand held
Bitcoin's net realized profits hit $207.56 million as the price climbed above $80,000 — the highest level in the current cycle. In most markets, that kind of profit-taking would cap a rally or trigger a sharper pullback. Here, it was absorbed by what analysts (in general terms) describe as strong demand, allowing Bitcoin to keep pushing higher. The 24-hour trading volume has risen 4% in the first two weeks of May, adding to that picture.
Key levels to watch this week
On the downside, Bitcoin has support at $75,000, then $73,000, and the 100-day moving average near $72,000. The next resistance is the $83,000–$85,000 band. A break above that could open a path toward $89,000, then $94,000, then eventually $100,000. But the $83,000–$85,000 zone also coincides with the 200-day moving average, making it a particularly tough ceiling.
The weekly close on Sunday will be the next concrete event to settle whether the bulls can hold $81,000 and start challenging that resistance. Until then, the MACD signal and miner behavior are the clearest cards the bulls have to play.
